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August 2017 Pending Home Sales

NAR released a summary of pending home sales data showing that August’s pending home sales pace is down 2.6 percent from last month and also down 2.6 percent from a year ago. Pending sales represent homes that have a signed contract to purchase on them but have yet to close. They tend to lead Existing Home Sales data by 1 to 2 months. All four regions showed declines from a year ago. The South had the smallest dip of 1.7 percent followed by the West with a decrease of 2.4 percent. The Midwest had a decline of 3.2 percent. The West had the biggest drop of 4.1 percent. From last month, all four regions showed declines in sales. The Northeast had the biggest dip of 4.4 percent. The South had a decline of 3.5 percent followed by the Midwest with a dip of 1.5 percent. The West had the smallest decline of 1.0 percent. The U.S. pending home sales index level for the month was 106.3. July’s data was revised down slightly to 109.1. In spite of the decline, this is the pending index’s 40th consecutive month over the 100 level. The 100 level is based on a 2001 benchmark and is consistent with a healthy market and existing home sales above the 5 million mark.
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

NAR 2017 Home Sales Forecast Downgraded

Blame supply and affordability headwinds and Hurricane Harvey damage in Houston for August’s 2.6 percent decline in pending home sales. In the video below, I chat with NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun about why sales have stalled in recent months, why he’s now expecting 2017 sales to come up short of 2016, and what impact the Federal Reserve’s plan to unwind its balance sheet will have on mortgage rates and affordability headed into next year.
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

REALTORS® Expect Continued Home Price Growth in Most States in the Next 12 Months

In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® asks members “In the neighborhood or area where you make most of your sales, what are your expectations for residential property prices over the next year?” Home prices have been on the rise as demand continues to outstrip supply. At the end of August 2017, the inventory of homes for sale stood at 1.88 million homes, which is equivalent to 4.2 months of the current monthly sales pace.  Month’s supply has been falling since January 2015, 27 consecutive months now. With falling inventory, home prices have increased. As of August 2017, the median price of existing homes sold was $253,500, surpassing the peak median price of $229,500 in June 2006. The map below shows the median expected price change of the respondents in the next 12 months at the state level, according to respondents in the August 2017 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.[1]  REALTOR® respondents expected strong price growth in Washington, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, of more than five percent in the next 12 months. Since January 2012, the year which can be considered as a breakout year for the housing market, home prices have increased by 68 percent as of July 2017, a four-fold increase compared to the 15 percent gain in median household income. Housing starts, although improving, have not kept pace with the 1.5 million estimated demand for units coming from net household formation (about 1.2 million) and units needed to replace obsolete or destroyed homes. Housing starts need to ramp up even further, especially in Texas and Florida, to replace the housing units damaged or destroyed by hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In Texas alone, the Texas Division of Emergency Management of the Department of Public Safety reported that as of September 19, there were 15,458 destroyed residential properties and 61,667 damaged properties (single-family, mobile, and multi-family).[2] [1] To increase the number of observations for each state, NAR uses data from the last three surveys. [2] DSO Spreadsheet 17-0021, Texas Department of Public Safety, https://www.dps.texas.gov/dem/sitrep/default.aspx
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

Your Fall Produce Guide

Do you like to eat locally? While the summer has an abundance of fresh produce for you to grab at your local farmer’s market, as fall hits, many wonder what local produce is still available. Below are the top five things to eat this autumn, available in most regions in the country. Apples! All hail fall, the season of apples! From apple pie to applesauce, apple slaw and more, there are hundreds of ways to enjoy this crispy sweet (or tart!) treat. Look for local apples in your grocery store or drive up to a nearby farm to pick yourself. Broccoli. Although it does grow in the warmer months, broccoli lingers into the fall. Roast up some spears with garlic and olive oil, or pull out your wok for a quick stir-fry. Blackberries. Most of us think of summer as the season for berries, but blackberries are available in some regions well into the early fall. Great for pies, smoothies, muffins and fruit salads, these juicy berries are packed with antioxidants—great for fighting colds as the “sick” season approaches. Cabbage. Stuffed cabbage, baked cabbage, stewed cabbage, coleslaw! This cruciferous veggie is very versatile, and extremely inexpensive. Grab a head or four and get to munching. Cauliflower. Many mistake cauliflower as being void of nutrients due to its pale coloring, but this couldn’t be further from the truth. Packed with vitamins, this veggie is great raw, steamed or baked. Some are even getting creative by making cauliflower “rice” and pizza crusts. Hit up Google for some innovative cauliflower recipes. Zoe Eisenberg is RISMedia’s senior content editor. Email her your real estate news ideas at zoe@rismedia.com. For the latest real estate news and trends, bookmark RISMedia.com. The post Your Fall Produce Guide appeared first on RISMedia.
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

Instant Reaction: July Owners’ Gains Forecast

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index shows that U.S. prices of single-family homes continue to rise. The national index level in July reached a new high and is up 5.9 percent from a year earlier.  But what does this mean for homeowners? Home prices affect the wealth of homeowners. As the price of housing increases, the wealth of homeowners increases as well. Based on the above increase of home prices, it is estimated that value of owners’ household real estate was increased by 1.3 trillion in the last year and 110 billion came from home price increases in July. That means that 75 million homeowners each gained $17,600 on average in July 2017 from a year earlier.
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

Homebuying Demand Continues to Outpace Supply in Many States

In a monthly survey of REALTORS®, respondents reported that buyer traffic conditions in August 2017 were stable to very strong compared to conditions one year ago in all states except Delaware, according to the August 2017 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.[1] Respondents rate buyer traffic as “Stronger” (100), “Stable” (50), or “Weaker” (0) in August 2017 compared to August 2016. An index greater than 50 indicates that more respondents reported stronger than weaker traffic conditions. Nineteen states had the highest levels of the index, indicating that buyer traffic was very strong, led by Washington, Idaho, Utah, South Dakota, Tennessee, Michigan, Kentucky, and Hawaii. Meanwhile, supply was weaker or unchanged in many states in August 2017 compared to conditions in the same month last year. Seller conditions were “strong” only in nine states and the District of Columbia. Nationally, the REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index (64) indicates that buyer demand is stronger compared to conditions in the same month last year. Meanwhile, supply remained generally tight, with the REALTORS® Seller Traffic Index remaining below 50 (47). An index below 50 indicates that more respondents reported “weaker” than “stronger” seller conditions in August 2017 compared to conditions one year ago. Housing starts, although improving, have not kept pace with the 1.5 million estimated demand for units coming from net household formation (about 1.2 million) and units needed to replace obsolete or destroyed homes. Housing starts need to ramp up even further, especially in Texas and Florida, to replace the housing units damaged or destroyed by hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In Texas alone, the Texas Division of Emergency Management of the Department of Public Safety reported that as of September 19, there were 15,458 destroyed residential properties and 61,667 damaged properties (single-family, mobile, and multi-family).[2] [1] In generating the indices, NAR uses data for the last three surveys to have close to 30 observations. Small states such as AK, ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and D.C., may have fewer than 30 observations. [2] DSO Spreadsheet 17-0021, Texas Department of Public Safety, https://www.dps.texas.gov/dem/sitrep/default.aspx
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

Why You Should Stage a Cozy Fire Pit Area

By Melissa Dittmann Tracey, REALTOR® Magazine Fire features, like outdoor fire pits and fire tables, are in demand. The National Association of Landscape Professionals calls it one of the hottest landscape trends for the fall, based on a recent survey of 5,000 of its member landscapers. These hot-spots can be a great way to show off the entertaining potential of your outdoor space. Set up a fire pit with a few outdoor chairs around it. You can even drape a blanket over one chair and add ingredients to s’mores on a table to finish off this perfect cozy fall scene. Consider, taking a picture of your fire pit with the flames at dusk to even add to your listing photos to highlight as a selling point too. (A professional photographer may be best to get this picture so that the lighting is perfect.) Check out these chic fire pit areas featured by designers at Houzz. Photo by Envision Landscape Studio – Browse patio photos Photo by Alderwood Landscape Architecture and Construction – Browse patio photos Photo by Elevation Architectural Studios – More patio photos Photo by Arterra Landscape Architects – Browse patio photos Photo by Draper white – Discover patio design ideas Photo by Sycamore Design – Discover patio design ideas
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

Get in Early on Emerging Neighborhoods

Buying in a hot housing market while prices are reasonable is a sure ticket to wealth. Analysts at GOBankingRates recently spotlighted 20 up-and-comers. The top 10 are: 1. Jungle Terrace – St. Petersburg, Fla.
Median List Price (as of July 2017): $239,900
Price Change Year-Over-Year: +44.5 percent 2. Beacon Hill – Seattle, Wash.
Median List Price: $569,995
Price Change Y-O-Y: +31.2 percent 3. Point Breeze – Philadelphia, Pa.
Median List Price: $295,000
Price Change Y-O-Y: +40.5 percent 4. Heather Gardens – Denver, Colo.
Median List Price: $278,750
Price Change Y-O-Y: +27.3 percent 5. Pinehurst – Seattle, Wash.
Median List Price: $350,000
Price Change Y-O-Y: +24.8 percent 6. Hazelwood – Portland, Ore.
Median List Price: $324,450
Price Change Y-O-Y: +22.4 percent 7. Twin Lakes – Las Vegas, Nev.
Median List Price: $182,450
Price Change Y-O-Y: +41 percent 8. Fairgrounds – Indianapolis, Ind.
Median List Price: $179,900
Price Change Y-O-Y: +29 percent 9. Bayside West – Tampa, Fla.
Median List Price: $229,900
Price Change Y-O-Y: +32 percent 10. Highland Hills – San Antonio, Texas
Median List Price: $135,000
Price Change Y-O-Y: +35.3 percent Source: GOBankingRates For the latest real estate news and trends, bookmark RISMedia.com. The post Get in Early on Emerging Neighborhoods appeared first on RISMedia.
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

Unmarried and Single American Home Buyers

Its Unmarried and Single Americans Week according to the U.S. Census. Here is some information about the home buying habits of single men, single women and unmarried couples from the National Association of REALTORS®’ Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. Single females made up 17% of home buyers in 2016. No matter their relationship status, the most common reason people give for buying a home is a desire to own their own home. Unmarried, first-time homebuyers are the only relationship group, on average, to purchase a home before they turn 30. For more information about Unmarried and Single Americans Week, visit census.gov. To view more of the highlights from NAR’s 2016 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, visit here.
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

Homes Typically Sold in 30 Days Under Tight Supply Conditions in August 2017

Amid strong demand and tight supply, REALTORS® reported that  properties that sold in June–August 2017 were typically on the market for less than 31 days in 29 states and in the District of Columbia, according to the August 2017 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.[1] Properties sold quickly in states such as Washington (19 days), Utah and D.C. (20 days) Minnesota, Nevada, and Tennessee (21 days), California, Colorado, and Kansas (22 days). Only in seven states did properties typically stay on the market for two months or more: Wyoming, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, West Virginia, Vermont, and Connecticut. Nationally, properties typically stayed on the market for 30 days in August 2017 days (30 days in July 2017; 36 days in August 2016).[2]  For comparison, properties were typically on the market for 97 days in 2011.  Nationally, 50 percent of properties that sold in August 2017 were on the market for less than a month (51 percent in July 2017; 46 percent in August).[3] Only five percent of properties were on the market for six months or longer. At the end of August 2017, the inventory of homes for sale stood at 1.88 million homes, which is equivalent to 4.2 months of the current monthly sales pace.  Month’s supply has been falling since January 2015, 27 consecutive months now. With falling inventory, home prices have increased. As of August 2017, the median price of existing homes sold was $253,500, surpassing the peak median price of $229,500 in June 2006. [1] In generating the median days on market at the state level, NAR uses data for the last three surveys to have close to 30 observations. Small states such as AK, ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and D.C., may have fewer than 30 observations. [2]The survey asks, “For the last house that you closed in the past month, how long was it on the market from listing time to the time the seller accepted the buyer’s offer?” The median is the number of days at which half of the properties stayed on the market. [3] Days on market usually refers to the time from listing date to contract date.
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

Homebuyers Welcome the First Day of Fall

Today is the first day of fall, and for homebuyers the crisper air means a golden opportunity to jump into the housing market. While all seasons offer reasons for people to get involved in real estate, September and October bring specific advantages for interested buyers. Eager sellers Many sellers try to sell their home in spring or summer. When fall comes around and their home is still on the market, sellers may be getting eager and willing to make a deal. Fall buyers can take advantage and maybe find their dream home within their budget. Tax advantages At the end of the year, people start to think about what year-end tax breaks they might be eligible for. Homebuyers have the opportunity for tax deductions, such as the mortgage interest and property tax deductions, which put money back in their pocket. Sweater weather Buying a home after the sweltering heat of summer and before the cold of winter is ideal for homebuyers. Fall weather conditions make the task of moving a little bit easier and allow new homeowners to get settled in their homes for the holiday season. Connect with a Realtor®, a member of the National Association of Realtors®, to learn more about buying a home.
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

What We’re Reading: September 18-22

Pumpkin spice, New Vocabulary Words, Greening the Workspace, Bitcoin Real Estate Deals and Animal Photography
Sick of Pumpkin spice already? (Personally, I was never into it in the first place)       flavourcurator.ca   Could binge watching TV be killing you or wrecking your sleeping habits? Retrofitted houses stand up to the latest Hurricane in Florida. New vocabulary is the spice of life and Merriam-Webster has once again expanded their dictionary. Just because the language is ever-changing, doesn’t mean you can’t strive for impeccable speech. CRT LABS has a green wall in the Chicago office. It turns out that green walls have many of the benefits of a green roof. Looking for ways to beautify the exterior? Try some of these unique border ideas to spice up your garden. Animal photography – just because! This real estate deal is the first to use solely cryptocurrency! Bill Gates wishes he could go back and make this an easier process. Bookstores are dying faster than ever these days, but these are a cause for celebration!

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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

Potential First-time Buyers Still on the Sidelines

First-time buyers accounted for 31 percent of  buyers who closed a sale in August 2017, according to the August 2017 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.[1]  The share of first-time buyers has been improving, although slowly, from less than 30 percent in 2013. Many potential first-time buyers are still on the sidelines, evidenced by the share of households who own a home. As of 2017Q2, the homeownership rate for the under 35 years old age group showed only a slight increase to 35.3 percent (34.3 percent in 2017Q1), while the homeownership rate for the 35-44 years old age group showed a slight decrease to 58.8 percent (59 percent in 2017Q1). In absolute numbers, there are six million fewer households who own homes among these age groups in 2016 compared to 2005.[2] What might account for this trends?  On the positive side, employment has been growing and interest rates have been at historic lows. On the negative side, difficulties in obtaining credit, steep price growth compared to income growth, and other factors such as student debt and delayed marriage account for why potential buyers have remained on the sidelines. Sustained employment growth. The share of first-time buyers has been on a modest uptrend since 2014 amid sustained job growth and a low interest rate environment. Since February 2010, the economy has generated 16.2 million non-farm jobs, which has now offset the 8.7 million jobs lost during the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Over the past 12 months, 2 million jobs were created.  Low interest rates. Interest rates remain at an all-time low, amid a supportive monetary policy stance. The 30-year fixed home mortgage rate has stayed below four percent for the most part since 2015 and averaged 3.77 percent in August 2017. The Federal Reserve Board has raised the federal funds rate target four times starting in December 2015 which raised rates from 0-0.25 percent to 1.00-1.25 percent, but mortgage rates have not kicked up correspondingly. Economists do see interest rates moving up as the Federal Reserve winds down its $4.5 trillion of investments in mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities starting in October 2017 at the rate of $10 billion a month. NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasts 30-year fixed mortgage rates to average 4.2 percent in 2017 and 4.6 percent in 2018.[3] Strong house price appreciation, lagging income growth. Although employment has been rising, incomes have not increased much, and income growth has lagged behind house price growth. Since January 2012, the year which can be considered as a breakout year for the housing market, home prices have increased by 68 percent as of July 2017, a four-fold increase compared to the 15 percent gain in median household income. Lack of inventory of homes for sale because inadequate new construction explains in part why home prices have increased at a fast pace. Housing starts, although improving, have not kept pace with the 1.5 million estimated demand for units coming from net household formation (about 1.2 million) and units needed to replace obsolete or destroyed homes. With falling inventory, home prices have increased. As of August 2017, the median price of existing homes sold was $253,500, surpassing the peak median price of $229,500 in June 2006.  Financing Constraints. Although interest rates are low, putting in a downpayment appears to pose as a constraint to interested homebuyers. FHA insures mortgages with 3.5 percent downpayment, with corresponding borrower credit scores of as low as 580. However, borrowers pay a mortgage insurance premium for the life of the loan (85 basis points for loans less than or equal to $625,500 with mortgage term of more than 15 years[4]), which may pose as deterrent in obtaining an FHA loan for some borrowers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have started offering 3 percent downpayment loans, but borrowers who put in five percent or less and who have less than 620 FICO score pay an additional 3.75 percent. According to Fannie Mae’s 2017 First Quarter Credit Supplement report[5], the share of single-family business acquisitions with loan-to-value ratio of more than 90 percent has in fact declined from nearly 20 percent in 2013—2014 to 15 percent in 2015–2017. NAR’s survey among its REALTORS® also shows that the share of first-time borrowers who put down 0 to 6 percent has declined from about 70 percent in 2009 to 57 percent in August 2017. Most studies indicate that those who are educated are more likely to have higher incomes and to become homeowners own a home. Student debt, when applied wisely, is a good investment and pathway to a higher standard of living and homeownership. However, student debt has delayed a home purchase for many non-homeowners. According to NAR’s 2017 Student Loan Debt and Housing Report 2017, 83 percent of non-homeowners reported that their student debt has delayed them from buying a home. The median years of delay is seven years among non-homeowners. Delayed marriage. Due to a host of factors, including economic reasons, men and women are postponing marriage. The median marrying ages for both men and women have been increasing since the 80’s, but the rate of increase appears to have accelerated after 2005. In 2005, the median marrying age for women was 25.3 years, while the median marrying age for men was 29.5 years. Everything else remaining the same, the delay in marriage has delayed homeownership by two years. In summary, solid employment growth and a slow rise in interest rates provide a hospitable environment for potential first-time buyers. Income-based repayment for student loans will also ease the burden for potential first-time borrowers. Increasing supply and easing the access to financing are the key challenges facing potential homeowners. [1]The survey asks about the characteristics of the respondent’s most recent sale. These sales can be considered as a random sample of the closed sales for the month. [2] U.S. Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey, Table 4SA downloaded from Haver Analytics. [3] NAR’s U.S. Economic Outlook: August 2017,  https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/reports/2017/embargoes/phs-07-31/forecast-08-2017-us-economic-outlook-07-31-2017.pdf [4] Mortgage Letter 2017-07FHA.com, https://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=17-07ml.pdf [5] http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/ir/pdf/quarterly-annual-results/2017/q12017_credit_summary.pdf
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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

 

Sample blog entry

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Brandon Farber

Brandon Farber

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